BlackjackGuru's Blog

For Smart Women Only: Make Blackjack Pay

Dealer Upcard Bust Rates and Your Win Rate

Posted by blackjackguru on July 17, 2009

This is old data, back from the days of Julian Braun, but I think the concepts are still sound. On average the dealer will bust 28% of the time. The Player win/loss % is the expected gain from total wagers placed in the long run, if perfect Basic Strategy is played consistently.

Dealer’s up-card Dealer bust % Player win/loss %
2 35.3 9.8
3 37.6 13.4
4 40.3 18.0
5 42.9 23.2
6 42.1 23.9
7 26.0 14.3
8 23.9 5.4
9 23.3 -4.3
T 21.4 -16.9
A 11.7 -36

Common Ploppy Mistake:

Getting frustrated when the dealer does not bust on stiffs 2 through 6. It only happens less than 43% of the time, so get used to it.

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